Tuesday, March 22, 2011

What is the Ring of Fire?

For Madame L's readers who haven't checked the Comments lately, here's a question, posted by Cimblog (TM), and the answer, posted by Jeff, Madame L's intrepid explainer of all things geologic.
I have a question for Madame L: Can you explain the Ring of Fire or Pacific Ring of Fire? Having had an earthquake in Chile, then New Zealand, and most recently Japan, how reliable is it to speculate the West Coast (particularly Los Angeles...heh) could be one of the next areas for a significant earthquake? 
Jeff's answer was, in part: 

The Coast is Toast. So is the center of the continent, where you can expect tornadoes, and the east and southeast, where you are about to die in a hurricane. If you try to hide in North Dakota, the Red River floods and sub-sub-freezing winters will get you. There is no escape. En serio, everyone living near a subduction or transform fault is at risk of a serious earthquake. It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when. Including the Ring of Fire, south and southeast Asia, and the African Rift Valley...And Jeff continued along these lines, noting that we should all be prepared for various types of disasters.

Madame L adds:  
Thank you for your question! Questions like these are interesting to all of Madame L's readers, and she appreciates Jeff's answer, too. Madame L provides some links, below, for those readers who want to know even more.

While many earthquakes indeed occur around the Ring of Fire (and in other locations, as Jeff pointed out), and past earthquakes are a pretty good predictor of future ones, it's really hard (okay, impossible) to predict the TIME of an earthquake.

Madame L has done a little reading up on this and was amazed, I say, AMAZED, at the number of websites with postings written by cranks, illiterate, pseudo-religious nutcases  purveyors of falsehoods.

They can't do it. Not even the USGS claims to be able to do it. In fact, Madame L found a great web page written by USGS seismologist Susan Hough 12 years ago on this subject: Big Earthquakes, Predictions and the New Millennium.

Dr. Hough begins, "There has been a certain apocalyptic feeling to the spate of recent earthquake activity worldwide. If it feels like the world is coming to an end, rest assured--it sometimes feels that way to the seismological community as well."
She concludes, "Earth scientists cannot predict where or when the next large earthquake will strike. However, they can tell you with certainty that earthquakes as large and larger than recent events are to be expected on a regular basis. Plan accordingly."
The USGS website is a great source of information on earthquakes, volcanoes, and other natural disasters. The site has a page of links to information about earthquake prediction.
 
Thanks again for your question, and keep 'em coming,

---Madame L


No comments: