Sunday, November 18, 2012

Book Review, Sunday, November 18, 2012: The Signal and the Noise (Again)

Madame L's very own copy of "The Signal and the Noise" arrived in yesterday's mail, so she hasn't had a chance to sit down and enjoy it yet, but she has a few teasers for her Dear Readers, with the promise that she'll write more about it before this year is up.

---Why does the U.S. Geological Survey say it can't predict earthquakes, but Nate Silver say you can forecast them?

---Why did Nate Silver's predictions about the outcome of the 2012 elections come closer to the actual results than the prediction and poll results of every other polling group and bloviating commentator?

---Why did Nate Silver go wrong in Montana, the only state where he missed a bet?

Madame L is excited to read more about Mr. Silver's statistical methods and his great stories about the history of statistics and why Bayesian theory works, and then to report to her Dear Readers.

No comments: